Unpacking the COVID-19 rescue and recovery spending: an assessment of implications on greenhouse gas emissions towards 2030 for key emitters

This paper analyses how fiscal stimulus spending in response to the COVID-19 pandemic supports the low-carbon transition. We developed a new framework to categorise rescue and recovery spending measures according to their level of greenness and their type of expected impact on greenhouse gas emissions. This framework allows to better capture how measures’ emission impacts may unfold over time and to identify the share of fiscal spending missing robust conditions or incentives to be considered low carbon. We assess nearly 2500 measures announced by 26 emitters as of May 2021, representing around 67% of global GHG emissions excluding land use in 2019. Our findings show that the largest share (35%) of spending with potential GHG emission implications went to measures that cannot be explicitly coded as high-carbon or low-carbon but substantiate current business-as-usual practice (‘supporting the status quo’). Our assessment reveals the different magnitudes to which the emitters have missed the opportunity for a green recovery. Low-carbon spending is sizeable (22%) across countries. However, almost two-thirds will likely rather unfold its impact over time. This fiscal spending may trigger emissions reductions through enabling or catalytic causal effects over time but will not necessarily lead to direct emission reduction impacts before 2030.

The G20 emission projections to 2030 improved since the Paris Agreement, but only slightly.

Many years passed since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, which invites countries to determine their own contributions to climate change mitigation efforts. The Agreement does not offer a standard to measure progress but relies on a process of periodic stocktakes to inform ambition-raising cycles. To contribute to this process, we compare 2021 greenhouse gas emission projections up to 2030 against equivalent projections prepared back in 2015. Both sets of projections were prepared using the same bottom-up modelling approach that accounts for adopted policies at the time. We find that 2021 projections for the G20 as a group are almost 15% lower (approximately 6 GtCO2eq) in 2030 than projected in 2015. Annual emissions grow 1% slower in the coming decade than projected in 2015. This slower growth mostly stems from the adoption of new policies and updated expectations on technology uptake and economic growth. However, around one-quarter of these changes are explained by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on short-term emissions and economic forecasts. These factors combined result in substantially lower emission projections for India, the European Union plus the UK (EU27 + UK), the Unites States, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa. We observe a remarkable change in South African projections that changed from a substantial increase to now a decline, driven in part by the planned phase-out of most of its coal-based power. Emissions in India are projected to grow slower than in 2015 and in Indonesia faster, but emissions per capita in both countries remain below 5 tCO2eq in 2030, while those in the EU27 + UK decline faster than expected in 2015 and probably cross the 5 tCO2eq threshold before 2030. Projected emissions per capita in Australia, Canada, Saudi Arabia, and the United States are now lower than projected in 2015 but remain above 15 tCO2eq in 2030. Although emission projections for the G20 improved since 2015, collectively they still slightly increase until 2030 and remain insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals. The G20 must urgently and drastically improve adopted policies and actions to limit the end-of-century warming to 1.5 °C. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11027-022-10018-5.

Weight stigma in the COVID-19 pandemic: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Weight stigma is a phenomenon associated with adverse behavioural and psychological consequences. Although experts suggest that its increase during the COVID-19 pandemic may be associated with worse health outcomes for people with obesity, a thorough analysis of the main findings and gaps is still needed when relating to this subject. OBJECTIVE: We aim to answer three questions: (1) How does weight stigma manifest in the COVID-19 pandemic? (2) How can weight stigma affect people with overweight or obesity in times of COVID-19? (3) What are the perceptions and experiences of weight stigma during the pandemic in individuals who experience overweight or obesity? METHODS: We conducted a scoping review of studies addressing weight stigma and the COVID-19 pandemic in electronic databases (Medline/PubMed, CINAHL, Embase, PsycInfo, BVS/Lilacs, Scopus, Web of Science, Google Scholar, and OpenGrey) published until 10th August 2021. All relevant studies were reviewed in full by two researchers. In addition, a narrative synthesis of the data was performed. RESULTS: The results included 35 studies out of 8,090 records and identified 13 original research publications, 14 text and opinion papers, and 6 narrative reviews. The results revealed the presence of weight stigma in the media, healthcare settings, interpersonal relationships, and public campaigns during the COVID-19 pandemic. The evidence of increasing weight stigma in the COVID-19 outbreak is limited, though. Many weight discrimination consequences were described during this time, such as impairment in accessing healthcare, worst COVID-19 outcomes, and maladaptive eating. However, only maladaptive behaviours and decline in mental health outcomes were demonstrated empirically in all age groups. This effect occurred regardless of body mass index, but people with high body weight were more likely to experience weight stigma. For some people with obesity, weight stigma in the pandemic has made activities of daily routine difficult. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that weight stigma in the COVID-19 pandemic occurs in several settings; moreover, although weight discrimination impacts mental health, whether before or during the pandemic, this influence between the pandemic and pre-pandemic scenario is still unclear. Therefore, more research is required in this field while the pandemic lasts, especially with people with obesity. Overall, people with overweight or obesity are more vulnerable to weight stigma than individuals without overweight. In addition, weight stigma refers to discrimination or prejudice based on a person's weight and relates to several consequences, for instance, poor healthcare treatment and mental health problems. In the COVID-19 outbreak, these weight stigma effects tend to become even more critical because they may be associated with unfavourable COVID-19 outcomes and eating disorder risks. Thus, it is crucial to investigate how weight stigma occurs during the pandemic and its impact on health, mainly for the most affected people. We investigated 35 studies published between 2019 and 2021 to map and explore how weight stigma was manifested and the related consequences for people with overweight or obesity in the COVID-19 pandemic. Only about a third of them were quantitative or qualitative, limiting the evidence of weight stigma in the COVID-19 context. The available evidence suggests that weight stigma manifests in several settings such as media, healthcare, public campaigns, and is more common in people with excess weight. However, weight discrimination experiences before or during the pandemic were associated with adverse psychological and behavioural consequences across all age groups, regardless of body weight. For some people with obesity, for instance, weight stigma made it difficult to accomplish their activities of daily routine. Nevertheless, it remains unclear whether weight stigma has increased in the pandemic, thus, more studies are required, especially about people with overweight or obesity.

Greenhouse gas emission scenarios in nine key non-G20 countries: An assessment of progress toward 2030 climate targets

This study compares greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions projections in 2030 under current policies and those under 2030 mitigation targets for nine key non-G20 countries, that collectively account for about 5 % of global total emissions today. These include the four largest non-G20 fossil CO2 emitting Parties to the UN climate convention pre- Paris Agreement (Iran, Kazakhstan, Thailand and Ukraine) and one of the largest land-use GHG emitters in the world (Democratic Republic of the Congo). Other countries assessed include major economies in their respective regions (Chile, Colombia, Morocco and the Philippines). In addition to economy-wide GHG emissions projections, we also assessed the projected GHG emissions peak year and the progression of per capita GHG emissions up to 2030. Our GHG emissions projections are also compared with previous studies. On economy-wide GHG emissions, Colombia, Iran, Morocco, and Ukraine were projected to likely meet or significantly overachieve their unconditional 2030 targets with existing policies, while DRC and Thailand would come very close to their targets. Kazakhstan and the Philippines would need to strengthen their action to meet their targets, while Chile recently raised its 2030 target ambition. Only Colombia and Ukraine are projected to have peaked their emissions by 2030. Per capita GHG emissions excluding land-use under current policies were projected to increase in all countries from 2010 levels by 8 % to over 40 % depending on the country. While the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on 2030 emissions is highly uncertain, our assessment on the target achievement would not change for most countries when the emission reductions estimated for 2020 in the literature were assumed to remain in 2030. The findings of this study highlight the importance of enhanced and frequent progress-tracking of climate action of major emitters outside G20, as is currently done for G20 members, to ensure that the global collective progress will become aligned with the pathways toward Paris climate goals.